TuttleMath / No mystery score
Projections explained
Every number on the board, in plain English.
- Projection
- The expected fantasy score for this week, built from recent usage and the salary the book has assigned.
- Season avg
- The player's own scoring average over the games included in the stepper.
- WCS
- Worst case: the floor outcome, the score to expect on a quiet day where the game script goes against them.
- BCS
- Best case: the ceiling outcome, the score in the version of the game where everything breaks their way.
- Var
- How far the weekly projection sits from the season average. A discount of roughly 12 to 28 percent is normal; anything further out gets flagged.
- DSPP
- Dollars spent per projected point — salary divided by projection. Lower is better value.
- Points per $1k
- The same idea from the other direction: projected points bought for every thousand dollars of cap.
- Plausibility
- How much the projection can be trusted, given sample size, injury status and whether the salary looks like a starter's salary.
Early in a season the samples are tiny, so more players show large variance. That is the data being honest, not the model breaking.